TIMES NEWS NETWORK

The race for emerging as the single largest party and the largest prepoll alliance in the Lok Sabha election has become really tight. Polling is yet to be held in 171 seats, although campaigning is over in all but 86 seats. And as parties go into the final stretch of the race, it looks like it will be a photo-finish.
It also seems quite clear now that whichever party or formation emerges as the biggest bloc, it will still have to rope in many more partners after the election to form a stable government.
By themselves, the two top groups — UPA and NDA — are certain to fall well short of the majority mark of 272.
TOI’s political bureaus in 14 different cities and its network of correspondents have been tracking the poll’s progress to bring you their best estimates of the likely results. We have done two rounds and here’s the third. When we began, it looked like Congress was well ahead of BJP and the UPA was more than 20 seats ahead of the NDA. No longer.
The Congress, according to our estimate, now looks like getting 152 seats and the UPA 195. The BJP, we feel, is likely to get 145 seats and its allies another 42, taking the NDA’s tally to 187. In other words, the gap between the two pre-poll alliances seems no more than 8 seats, and as these are nothing more than estimates, it’s really tough to say which way the electoral see-saw will eventually tilt.
The bigger message that’s emerging from this scenario is that the leading parties as well as alliances could be separated by less than 10 seats. This would obviously mean that the Left and “Others”
could end up deciding who forms the next government.

Cong likely to suffer setbacks in Andhra, TN

The current estimates differ from the earlier one in several states. Among the most significant differences is that in UP — we now feel both the Congress and the BJP might do better than earlier anticipated. Between them and the BJP’s ally, Ajit Singh’s RLD, they could win 30 of the state’s 80 seats. The rest, we believe, will be split 28-22 between the BSP and the SP.
We also believe that in Andhra and TN, Congress may suffer a greater setback than earlier estimated. The TDP-led “grand alliance” appears to have done better than expected, while Chiranjeevi’s Praja Rajyam has done some damage to Congress in the coastal areas. In TN, which is to poll on May 13, the momentum appears to be shifting towards the AIADMK-led alliance. With more than a week still to go, if the trend continues, final tally may be even lower for the UPA.
In Bihar, while the JD(U)-led NDA seems to have performed spectacularly, as we had projected, the RJD-LJP alliance may have done even worse than we initially thought, while the Congress may end up winning just about three seats. Our current estimates in Orissa and Punjab are that Congress could have gained some momentum. In Maharashtra, it is BJP-Sena alliance that we believe is holding a lead over Congress-NCP.