TIMES NEWS NETWORK

We’ll have to wait till Saturday to find out what is sealed in lakhs of EVMs, but according to The Times of India’s final estimates, the Congress and UPA appear to have an edge in the race for New Delhi.
Our final estimates are that the Congress will get 154 seats and finish ahead of the BJP which is projected to bag 142 seats. With UPA allies projected to get another 44 seats, UPA is expected to get 198 seats and may get first go at forming government — always an advantage in a hung parliament.
NDA allies are likely to win 41 seats, taking its tally to 183, 15 short of the UPA. The Left, which had won 61 seats in 2004, is projected to finish with 38, a tally that would leave it depleted, but with enough to remain a significant player in a highly fragmented post-poll scenario.
The game after May 16 would seem to revolve around the 124 ‘others’, including BSP (27) and SP (23). Some of them, like the AIADMK, TDP, PMK, MDMK, JD(S) and TRS had come together with the Left to form the Third Front, but cracks within the alliance are already evident and it may well be each party for itself once the numbers are out.
JD(U)’s anticipated good showing in Bihar could give Nitish Kumar some options, though he’s unlikely to part company with BJP and jeopardize his state government unless the benefits are commensurate and there’s a reasonable chance of his winning the next assembly elections in Bihar in the company of Congress.
The TOI estimates are based on the feedback of our bureaus across the country as well as the national bureau. They are by no means the last word on these polls, but are arguably the most comprehensive journalistic exercise of their kind. It must, however, be added that predicting the outcome in Uttar Pradesh and Tamil Nadu is always difficult.We have sought to go down to constituencies to make our estimates, but given three or four-cornered contests in UP and shifting sentiments in TN, they could go wrong.
What the estimates do indicate is that while states like Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Bihar and Jharkhand are likely to deliver a setback to Congress and UPA, other states like Kerala, West Bengal, Rajasthan, Punjab and Orissa would help repair most of this damage, and in fact help Congress to gain a few seats.
For NDA, Bihar and Jharkhand appear to be acting as a cushion against shocks in Orissa, Punjab and Rajasthan. In UP, Congress and BJP appear to be gaining.